Ukraine Grain Outlook Grim, Recovery Chances Slight With La Niña in Effect

Drought in Ukraine may not be cured due to growing La Niña influence,  pointing to sharply lower winter wheat and rapeseed production in the 2012 harvest.

Drought is worsening in the Ukraine grain belt as winter wheat and rapeseed slip into dormancy.  The Ukraine weather agency warned in October that 30% of grains may not survive the winter, because of poor crop establishment from incredibly dry conditions.   Large swaths of the grain belt received only 30-40% of normal precipitation in the fall planting season.

The November 1-15 vegetation image confirmed poor prospects in Ukraine winter crops, especially the south, a key winter wheat area.

Cold temperatures have not done any good retarding crop development.  Kirovohrad grains were on the verge of dormancy in mid November with near freezing temperatures. 

Recovery From Drought in 2009-10

An example of a dramatic recovery and good production, despite fall drought, is the 2009-10 growing season.

Planting conditions were just as dry two years ago in September 2009, but  a very favorable harvest was still obtained.  Prospects improved,  due to very heavy fall-winter precipitation that totally restored field moisture.   

Whereas  La Niña is the  drought maker, El Niño brings heavy precipitation to  Ukraine.   Read on to learn how  El Niño-inspired heavy precipitation eventually led to a productive harvest. 

First see a soil moisture analysis in Ukraine from late September, 2009, confirming severe drought.  The satellite generated analysis was obtained from a special report authored by Mark Lindeman of the Foreign Agriculture Service.

The tide turned in October 2009 with very heavy rainfall in Ukraine:

Unseasonably warm November weather promoted crop growth with improved field moisture.    The fall growing period was extended:

Incredibly wet winter weather followed with 2 to 3 times the normal snowfall.   Heavy snowmelt and fall rain completely restored field moisture for crop growth and development in the spring.

Against the odds, Ukraine winter wheat production turned out very well with 20.87 million metric tons.   It was one of the better wheat harvests of the decade, 16% above the previous 5-year average.

ENSO Signal is Reversed, La Niña in Charge

This is a lesson on wheat’s remarkable resiliency.  Yet wet weather conditions fall through winter were ideal, restoring field moisture.   Fall warmth encouraged growth that helped crops to become established.  The warm and wet conditions came from a growing El Niño influence.    

A favorable harvest in winter wheat and rapeseed may not be in the cards in the 2011-12 crop season due to a growing influence from La Niña, a drought maker in Ukraine.   The Ukraine new crop wheat production estimate at 22 million tons seems overly optimistic.