Adverse Weather Shrinks the Russia Grain Harvest

September 7, 2011

Crop analysts expected to see Russia grain exports rebound sharply in 2011-12 but summer heat and dryness in the southern Volga may have taken a bite out of production.   Serious yield losses also occurred from spring drought in the normally productive Black Earth grain belt.

SovEcon the respected analysis group twice reduced its estimate for Russia grain production in August, first calling for 87-90 million metric tons and then dropping the number to 87-88 million metric tons near month end.   Russia annual grain consumption is around 77-78 million tons, still leaving a substantial surplus for export, but less than originally anticipated.

The southern Volga experienced hot dry growing conditions mid-summer reducing grain prospects.  This is an important spring wheat growing area, beginning the spring season on a positive note with favorable soil moisture.  However, conditions detreriorated badly with a mid summer heat wave:

Dry conditions developed at the same time in the Volga.   Saratov and Orenburg are key grain areas:

  

July temperatures at Orenburg were 6-7 F above normal in the heading and grain filling stage.  Rainfall was scanty, at the same time, worsening moisture stress in spring wheat and barley:

Damage to Winter Wheat From Severe Drought

 The southern Volga was not the problem area for drought.   A sharply reduced wheat crop in the Black Earth area also has contributed to a less abundant Russia grain harvest.   Southwest Russia normally produces the highest-yielding grain in the nation, but intense spring drought culminating in a heat wave took a toll on winter wheat, the main crop.  

August yields were coming in near 2 metric tons per hectare, compared to 3 metric tons/hectare normally.   The SovEcon chief explained that, besides sharp yield reductions,  the wheat area was reduced as growers failed to get all the intended wheat planted last fall. 

For more information on spring drought in European Russia read this report:  http://www.martellcropprojections.com/CropProductionReports/Severe-Drought-in-Russia-Central-Region-Shrinks-the-Harvest-