Argentina Expecting Welcome Heavy Rain

November 7, 2011

Heavy rainfall has finally reached Buenos Aires, Argentina's key southern farm province that produces most winter wheat and a big portion of the national corn harvest. Between .75 inch and 1.50 inches of rain fell last week.

Stormy Weather Continues

The forecast remains unsettled today in Buenos Aires with a high risk of showers and thunderstorms. Northern Buenos Aires would get rain tomorrow as a strong cool front lifts northward through the grain belt. Northern grain provinces Cordoba, Santa Fe and Entre Rios have a high risk of thunderstorms Wednesday. Sunny and cool weather will develop behind the storm the last half of the week.

Rainfall may be too late for maximum benefits in winter wheat. Grain filling is already underway. The rain would help to increase kernel weights, but prolonged drought previously caused irreversible damage, thinning wheat stands and stunting growth. The Rosario Grains Exchange last month lowered its estimate for Argentina winter wheat production to 12.50 million metric tons, and 17% below the 15 MMT produced in 2010-11.

Bahia Blanca a key wheat growing area in southern Buenos Aires experienced severe drought:

Rain Will Boost Corn Planting

Drenching rainfall would spur Argentina corn planting. Only 57% of corn had been sown by October 27, according to the Ministry of Agriculture, compared to 70% a year ago on the same date.  Dry soil conditions hindered sowing.  Corn seeding will pick up momentum this week following soil-replenishing heavy rainfall.   

November is not too late for corn planting in Argentina, due to a moderate climate. The growing season is sufficiently long for corn to safely mature, avoiding frost, even with November planting dates.  It is different from the United States northern corn belt, where frost is a threat if corn is planted a month late.

The new forecast is wet in winter wheat and  corn provinces: 

New Crop Corn Production Hinges on La Nina

Argentina would be in position to capitalize on corn exports in 2011-12, if a bumper harvest is achieved.    Reduced United States corn is available for export, due to continued high domestic usage in ethanol production and livestock feed.   Indeed, US carryover stocks are projected at less than a one-month supply ahead of the new harvest in fall,  2012.  

Argentina is the world’s second largest producer and exporter of corn.  The USDA new-crop projection is for 27.50 million metric tons and a new record.

A record harvest in Argentina corn seems a leap of faith, considering that  La Nina is developing.  The La Nina is a known drought-maker in southern South America.