Buenos Aires Drought Virtually Cured by Heavy Rainfall

November 9, 2011

Heavy rainfall this week has replenished field moisture in Buenos Aires the top corn province that accounts for more than half of Argentina production.

Argentina corn planting was behind schedule due to dry and cool October weather in Buenos Aires.  Only 63% of corn was sown November 3, compared to 73% last year.    Field moisture was generally favorable in Cordoba, Santa Fe and Entre Rios.  These are all important corn growing areas. 

The map below refers to conditions prior to heavy rainfall last week.

 

Recurring strong thunderstorms developed on 3 successive nights last week virtually curing drought in Buenos Aires.    Cumulative rainfall was  2-4 inches generally but 6 inches locally.    Good rainfall over 1 inch also occurred in  Santa Fe and Cordoba.  These are the top 3 corn provinces in Argentina.

 

 

Buenos Aires Drought Almost Erased 

Buenos Aires drought was not entirely cured but very nearly so.   See 60-day rainfall plots in Tandil and Junin, central and northern Buenos Aires locations.   Two-four inch rains were almost enough to bring field moisture back to normal. 

 

Record Corn Harvest Sought

The USDA predicts Argentina farmers will expand corn plantings to  3.8 million hectares this season, spurred on by high prices.   If a normal yield is achieved, production would reach 29 million metric tons  a new record.   

Record corn plantings and production are the goal in 2011-12.  

 

Record corn output would come from a normal (trend-line ) yield and high acreage: 

La Niña Drought in 2010-11

Last year a record corn harvest was anticipated from high plantings, but severe drought from La Nina shrank production to only 22.5 million metric tons.   If another strong La Nina emerges in 2011-12,  corn  production may again fall short of expectations, down 5 million metric tons or more.   

Yet, in the wake of drenching rains, it is hard to worry about drought damaging corn production.

Severe drought developed from October to mid January 2010-11 with La Niña in effect.