Canada Prairie Drought Worries for 2012 Crops

December 15, 2011

Incredibly dry conditions late last summer benefited the Canada grain harvest favoring crop drying and preserving quality of wheat, barley and rapeseed.   At the same time, the sunny warm weather greatly depleted field moisture.

Statistics Canada reported a record 2011 rapeseed production of 14.17 million metric tons this season.     Wheat production was a respectable 25.26 million metric tons.  Yields were excellent but a sharply reduced planted area, second lowest on record,  shrank the crop.   A slow developing spring was responsible for serious plantings delays and a sharply reduced wheat area.

Dry Harvest a Mixed Blessing

The period from August through October was particularly dry in the Canadian prairies.  Crop production next season may be in jeopardy from dry field conditions.

Edmonton Alberta received less than 2 inches of rainfall  accruing a 3.7 inch moisture deficit in the 3 months.   Precipitation has increased duringn the past 30 days,  improving soil moisture, yet only 53% of normal precipitation has been received since August 1. 

Prairie Climate Dry in Winter and Spring

Edmonton Alberta received only light rainfall and snowmelt in the off-season after crops are harvested and before spring plantint.    Less than 1 inch of precipitation occurs monthly, December through March.   April weather is also dry with only 1.1" of moisture based on climate mean values (30 years).   

The warm crop growing season brings heavy rainfall.   May precipitation increases to 2 inches, enough to dampen topsoil for spring planting to begin.  The summer is very wet peaking at 3. 8 inches of rainfall in July.    Indeed, more than half of annual rainfall occurs in the 3 months June, July and August, 10 inches compared to 19 inches for the entire year.

The point is it would be difficult for Edmonton to make up a 3.15 inch moisture deficit  before crops are planted in May 2012.  It would take 6.56 inches of rain and snowmelt between now and April 30,  3.15" on top of the normal 3.41" that accrues in the same period.   Thus, 191% of normal precipitation is required to eliminate drought.

The Canada Drought Watch website is an excellent resource.   See the 90-day precipitation map showing percent of normal precipitation up to mid December.  Alberta is not the only dry province in the Canadian prairies,  where more than 90% of Canada crops are grown. Northwest and northeast  Saskatchewan and Manitoba also are experiencing extremely dry conditions. 

Compared to a year ago, conditions are much drier.   Compare and contrast August-October rainfall 2011 against 2010.  The lack of stored field moisture makes 2012 crops more vulnerable to drought.