Corn, Soybean and Wheat Damage Revealed in USDA August Report

August 16, 2011

Corn Damage from Historic July Heat

Growing conditions for corn have improved in August,  but July heat stress caused irreversible damage in corn. The USDA Thursday issued a yield estimate for US corn of 153 bushels per acre and 5% below trend. Production would be 12.9 billion bushels and insufficient to avoid a sharp draw-down in stocks from high consumption needs.

 

Here is the lowdown on July heat.  Temperatures averaged 78.4 F and 4.3 F above normal. It was the hottest July since 1955.

 

Pictures of damaged corn from around the Midwest began circulating on the internet, showing blank ear tips from unsuccessful pollination. Other photos showed small, stubby ears with a reduced number of kernels.  The question is not if damage occurred but how severe?

Corn having a deep root system withstood the heat relatively better, tapping into a rich source of subsoil moisture. Ridge-rider thunderstorms also brought produced beneficial rain in Iowa, Nebraska, South Dakota and Minnesota. Western corn states have maintained high crop ratings reporting 73-79% good-excellent corn August 7.

 

The Eastern Midwest corn was much worse August 7, 50% good-excellent in Illinois and Ohio, 41% in Indiana, 43% in Missouri and 66% in Michigan.  Shallow rooting may have been to blame for rapid deterioration.  Corn that was planted late into wet fields was not well established.

 

Soybean Production Pegged 8% Lower

 

US soybean production would fall 8% below 2010 with a 3.06 billion bushel harvest, based on the August USDA production estimate. Soybeans are known to tolerate heat better than corn.  However, serious drought has taken a toll on the crop.  Low rainfall in the Midwest occurred over a 45- day period in the soybean blooming and early pod setting stage.

 

The national soybean rating August 7 fell to a season-low 61% good-excellent, 26% fair and 12% poor-very poor:

 

Midwest producers realize generous August rainfall is required to improve prospects, as this would increase the number of pods set,  also enlarging soybeans in the pod. The reproductive stage was well under way with 87% of soybeans blooming and 51% setting pods August 7.  

 

An average yield may not be possible. The USDA pegged the US soybean yield at 41.4 bushels per acre and 5.3% below trend.

 

The dome of hot air responsible for Midwest crop damage has sunk into the Southern United States, still keeping a grip on Texas and the Deep South.  Welcome cooler and wetter conditions have developed recently in the Midwest.   However, soil profiles are still dry from prolonged drought.

Rainfall needs to be heavy and frequent to keep up with high crop moisture needs in the reproductive stages. It takes approximately 35 days for soybeans to fill after pods are set.

 

Sharply Lower Bread Wheat Supplies

Historic drought in the Southern Great Plains decimated wheat production in Texas and Oklahoma, and cut the Kansas harvest by one-quarter. Production of high protein hard red winter wheat, used in bread, would shrink 22% this season, based on USDA August estimates. The best scenario would be a bumper hard red spring wheat harvest, but instead sharp losses are anticipated in the new harvest now beginning. Ironically, not drought, but extreme wetness is the reason for the shortfall.

 

Extreme spring wetness from a delayed snowmelt and persistent cold led to a 3-week planting delay. Not all the intended wheat was sown in North Dakota, the top producer, and Montana. The updated hard red spring wheat estimate is 522 million bushels and 15% down on the season.  North Dakota the top producing state would see production fall 18%. 

 

A very slow start to the growing season means harvesting delays are certain. If the harvest gets strung out for several weeks into the fall wheat quality may suffer. Presently, growing conditions are ultra-wet in North Dakota promoting the development of disease.

 

United States hard red wheat production – winter plus spring – would be 1.27 billion bushels and 20% down on the season using the USDA August estimates. Hard wheat valued for bread- making comprises 72% of US wheat production typically, but would be only 61% of the 2011 US wheat harvest.