Drought Disaster in Ukraine To Shrink Wheat Output By 45%

January 11, 2012

The Ukraine Agriculture Ministry has announced that wheat production in the country may shrink to only 12 million metric tons, down from 22 MMT last season.  The new wheat estimate would be scarcely more than half a normal crop.  Historic drought has caused irreversible damage in wheat heavily produced in the southern portions of the country.

 

Devastating drought began in early July 2011, and continued  up until  mid December.   Not all the planted wheat has germinated.  One-third of the sprouted wheat was said to be in poor condition,  the Ukraine Ministry of Agriculture has claimed. 

Soaking rains have finally developed the past 3 weeks in key wheat growing areas, but it comes too late for any meaningful recovery.

Rainfall from July 1 through mid October averaged only 15 millimeters and 25% of normal.  The planting rains were the lowest in at least 10 years,  based on a study conducted by the US Foreign Agriculture Service. 

 

 

 

Some winter wheat areas suffered worse drought.   Kryvyi Rih in the southern Ukraine received only 1.82 inches of precipitation compared to 9.47 inches normally in 140 days.  That is only 19% of normal precipitation. 

 

Bad Outcomes With Abnormally  Dry Weather 

In agriculture, historic drought is a red flag for extreme crop damage.  The reason crops are grown where they are is because the climate and soils are suitable for a productive yield.  Whenever weather conditions deviate too far from  normal, it is always a bad omen for crop production.

 

Ukraine Ascension to Major Wheat Producer and Exporter

Ukraine emerged as a major wheat grower and exporter following devastating losses in wheat in the 2003-04 season, when only 3.6 million metric tons were harvested.  Not drought, but persistent ice crusting was the culprit, causing massive losses in wheat, smothering the crop.  Scroll up to see extremely poor wheat production 9 years ago in the 2003-04 harvest-marketing year.

 

In the years following the 2003-04 crop disaster, Ukraine has emerged as a major producer and exporter of wheat.   Production increased to 18.7 million metric tons, on average, in the recent 5 years.   In that same period, Ukraine garnered a 5.8% share of wheat exports, using USDA numbers.

Wheat sales will surely be curtailed from the 7 million metric tons of wheat exports anticipated by USDA in 2011-12.

 

Eastern Europe Sharing Drought

Not only have small grains in Ukraine suffered from severe drought, but also eastern Europe.  Wheat growers in Poland, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia all anticipate a poor harvest.   Also very dry on the August-December 2011 precipitation map are Belarus and Latvia the far northern growing areas.