East Europe Drought and Cold Threaten Winter Grains

February 14, 2011

Poorly established wheat and rapeseed in Eastern Europe may be subject to severe damage from drought and winterkill.  Winter grain prospects are better in Western Europe. 

Very poor yields in  East Europe winter grains are anticipated, due to very dry planting conditions hampering fall growth and development, much the same trouble with crops in neighboring Ukraine.  Bitterly cold temperatures may produce winterkill in drought damaged winter crops. 

The Ukraine farm consulting company UkrAgroConsult last  week cut its estimate for winter wheat production to 13.7 million metric tons.   That compares to 22 MMT last season.   The combination of extremely dry planting conditions and bitter winter cold is a formula for widespread losses in winter wheat and rapeseed.

Farm states  Poland, Hungary, Romania, Slovakia and Czech Republic face sharply reduced yields in the 2012 harvest.   Eastern Europe contributes  24%  to European rapeseed production, but only 15-16% to wheat.  Fall planting conditions were very dry leading to poor establishment in winter grains.  

Western Europe crop potential is better.   Planting rainfall in August and September was favorable in France, Germany, Denmark and the low countries, contrasting with an emerging drought in Eastern Europe.

 

 

Intense drying occurred in October-November.  It was more damaging in East European crops, already hampered by very dry planting conditions: 

 

Heavy winter precipitation replenished dry fields.  Yet poorly established East European crops,  stressed by prolonged drought, are not  expected to make a good yield.

 

Poor November vegetation in Eastern Europe was  a reminder winter grains were in bad shape, not likely to recover.  Top farm nations are Poland, Romania and Hungary, along with Slovakia.

 

 

West European grains continued to grow and develop into December, due to unseaonably mild weather. Crop development occurs at temperatures over 40 F.

 

Intense cold  suddenly developed in late January dominating Europe the past 2-3 weeks:

 

We are not worried about the  cold wave having a negative impact on winter grains in Western Europe.   Crops planted on schedule with favorable field moisture had adequate time to “harden” a natural process that occurs with shortening daylight hours in the autumn.   East Europe crops weakened by previous drought may suffer widespread damage, and  similar to dire predictions coming from Ukraine.

Cold conditions have eased in far western Europe.  Overnight lows barely reached the freezing mark in France and Spain, well above freezing in the United Kingdom: