Evaluating Corn Damage in Argentina

January 17, 2012

Scattered strong thunderstorms produced welcome heavy rainfall in the Argentina corn area last week.  Showers were not heavy enough to replenish dry fields suggesting drought stress may resume.  More heavy rainfall is still needed.  

If rainfall in the corn area is evaluated against the previous month, when virtually no rain occurred, there still remains a sizable moisture deficit.    December weather was extremely dry in corn and soybean areas.

 

Below are 3 examples of lingering drought, despite scattered heavy rainfall last week.

Rio Cuarto, Cordoba,  received 2.25 inches of rain in a strong thunderstorms, but that makes only 41% of normal rainfall in the 30 days ending January 15.   The subsoil is dry, meaning drought stress would resume quickly without additional rain.  

 

Northern Buenos Aires got less rainfall, under 1 inch at Junin,  and  19% of normal for the 30 days.

 

The province of Santa Fe fared better getting heavier rainfall.   Rosario received 1.8 inches of rain last week, 3.6 inches for the month and 73% of normal in the recent 30 days.    Crops in this area would be sustained for a while longer by wetter field conditions.  

 

 

The monthly rainfall map incorporates last week’s scattered showers in Argentina. South Brazil also fared well with above-normal rains in the week.

 

Extreme Heat in Argentina Grain Belt

Argentina heat stress has been far worse than  South Brazil.   Bolivar in western Buenos Aires recorded 11 days over 95 F in the month leading up to last week’s showers,  3 days of which were above 100 F.

 

 

USDA Argentina Corn Area Too High

The USDA predicts high corn plantings for the second year in a row, as growers were inspired to increase acreage by  high prices in corn.    The 2011-12 corn plantings were projected to be the highest in more than two decades, but with drought not all the corn may get planted.   

The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said Thursday  corn planting was only 85% complete on the 3.74 million hectares projected to be planted. 

 

 

In years of severe drought, very badly damaged corn is cut for silage, not fit to be sold as grain and thus reduced the corn area harvested.    Historic drought in 2008-09 in Buenos Aires shrank the Argentina corn area to only 2.5 million hectares, compared to 3.41 mln hectares the prior year and a 27% reduction. 

This is not to insinuate the corn area would shrink by that amount in 2011-12.  Only that the current corn area estimate seems too high.

The January 1-10 vegetation index shows worse damage than the 5-year average, especially Cordoba the second leading corn province.    Rio Grande do Sul in South Brazil has severe crop damage.