Extreme Heat Worsens Corn Damage in Argentina

January 23, 2012

Scattered thunderstorms have produced locally heavy rainfall in Argentina corn growing areas in January,  but not enough rain has occurred to offset the extreme heat.  Corn growing areas in the western grain belt eported highs over 90 F on 22 of the past 30 days F, half of which were over 95 F.     

Two heat waves have occurred in the Argentina corn areas, the first in mid December and a second, more persistent, heat wave in January:

 

A large portion of Argentina corn was planted in late October and would have pollinated under severe heat and moisture stress in January.   Very low rainfall in December depleted ground moisture making the corn drought damage worse.  See the rainfall map below showing rainfall  the past 45 days.

Drought is severe in in northern Buenos Aires, Cordoba and La Pampa , but southern Santa Fe is relatively wetter, all key  corn provinces

 

 

USDA Too Optimistic on Argentina Corn

The 26 million metric ton estimate for Argentina corn production, given by USDA in the January report, is unrealistically high.   The USDA slashed the Argentina corn yield estimate 9.5% below trend,  but kept the corn area at a record level.   

 

Corn severely damaged by  drought may be cut for silage and not sold for grain.   The USDA corn area estimate was  given at a record high 3.8 million hectares in the January report.     That contributed to the high corn production estimate, 26 million metric tons and 16% higher than last season. 

 

Similar drought in 2008-09 led to a 27% cut in the corn harvested area, compared with the prior season.   That matches commentary from Argentina observers saying as much as 25% of corn may already have been lost to drought.   Millions of metric tons of corn may be lost,  Argentina's Agrarian Federation and Rural Society said in mid January.

 

Worsening Corn Damage Revealed by Satellite  

The mid January satellite vegetation  reveals areas of extreme moisture stress.  The deep orange and red areas appear in Buenos Aires, southern Cordoba and La Pampa.   Santa Fe vegetation is still favorable in the southern corn growing area, where showers improved growing conditions recently.  This is 3rd leading corn province.   

 

The new forecast calls for scattered rainfall from .75 to 1.50 inches today with highs near 90 F , triggered by a cool front passage.    Moderating temperatures will follow for a few days with expected highs in the 80s F.   Highs near 90 F are expected by the weekend. 

Compared to the Friday forecast, the rainfall is lighter in the new outlook: