Heavy Soaking Rain in South Brazil

October 17, 2011

South Brazil received welcome heavy rainfall last week that has improved soil moisture for spring planting. Corn planting normally gets started in October as the rainy season gets under way.   Northern Rio Grande do Sul and Parana received a solid 3-4 inches of rainfall last week, but locally more, replenishing dry fields.

Hardly any rain occurred in the month ending October 10 in the 2 main corn states Parana and Rio Grande do Sul.   For the time being, soil conditions are moist promoting favorable planting conditions in South Brazil corn and soybeans.

Weak La Nina Present

Sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region have been hovering around 0.6 C - 0.7 C below normal, indicating a weak episode.  Very cool equatorial Pacific temperatures, more than 1.0 C below normal, would  constititute a strong La Nina.

A very strong La Nina last season had no negative effects on South Brazil.    On the contrary a record soybean harvest was gathered 75.50 million metric tons.   Corn production also set a record with 57.50 million metric tons, aided by a bumper harvest in Parana, the laeding corn state.    Oddly, a weak La Nina in 1995-96 produced widespread dryness in South Brazil.   

The La Nina drought signal is stronger in Argentina typically,  affecting Cordoba, western and southern Buenos Aires and La Pampa.  Last year the weak La Nina had a devastating effect on soybeans, shrinking the harvest to 49 million metric tons, compared to 54.50 MMT the previous season.  Corn fell to 22.0 million metric tons from 23.30 MMT in 2009-10.