Kazakhstan Wheat Outlook Favorable, Development Delayed

August 8, 2011

Kazakhstan wheat production may excel in 2011 allowing for strong exports. The new wheat harvest may reach 15 million metric tons compared to 9.7 million metric tons last year, with drought. Exports are expected to be 8 million metric tons, comprising more than half the harvest.

 

Wheat production varies sharply year to year from unreliable rainfall in a semi-arid climate. Last season, with severe drought, wheat output shrank to only 9.7 million metric tons and the worst in a decade. The amount of wheat left over for export was sharply reduced, shrinking to 5.4 MMT.

Kazakhstan wheat is 76% produced in 3 northern districts Akomola, Kostanai and North Kazakhstan.

 

Ample growing season rainfall in 2011 has promoted a favorable yield outlook.  See the 45-day rainfall analysis below showing above-normal rains in the major wheat areas. Wheat jointing normally occurs in June, followed by flowering mid July and grain filling in August. Harvesting typically begins mid August.

Last year, a severe summer drought damaged Kazakhstan wheat driving production to a 10-year low:

 

Cool summer temperatures have been highly beneficial, reducing moisture stress in developing wheat. 

 

The satellite vegetation image late in July indicates above-normal greenness and crop vigor. This is a favorable yield indicator:

 

Very cool summer temperatures may delay grain ripening and harvesting. If there is a negative indicator for Kazakhstan wheat, it is retarded maturity. Crop quality may be threatened with delayed ripening and harvesting. Mold may occur with increased dampness, or a killing freeze may damage the yield.

Incredibly cool weather has dominated the grain belt all summer: