La Nina South America Drought Analog in 2008-09

January 4, 2012

Corn and soybeans are in jeopardy in southern South America from nagging drought.   A moderately strong La Nina may be the culprit,  similar to the 2008-09 La Nina induced drought.

Argentina Stressful Weather 

Hot weather continued yesterday in Argentina’s grain belt but temperatures were somewhat less extreme with upper 80s – mid 90s.   The worst heat stress occurred in Cordoba and Santa Fe,  key corn and soybean provinces.   

 

Buenos Aires crops continued to be stressed by an extremely dry atmosphere.  The maximum temperature yesterday in western Buenos Aires was 88 F, dropping to 51 F overnight.  A daily range in temperatures of 37 F degrees is way above the normal 20 degree difference and similar to a desert climate.    Corn in the province is coming under serious moisture stress early in January as the key pollination period advances.

The satellite vegetation index confirms sub-par crop conditions in Buenos Aires in late December, though green areas indicated  above-average  conditions in some areas.  

 

Argentina Corn Potential Exceeds 2008-09

Dry conditions in Argentina corn are similar to the 2008-09 growing season, though not as extreme as 3 years ago.  

 

The Argentina grain belt is relatively wetter than 2008 in the same period.  October-December growing conditions encompass corn planting and vegetative growth stages, culminating in late December pollination. 

Severe Corn Losses in 2008-09

Corn damage was so severe in Buenos Aires that Argentina corn production fell to 15.5 million metric tons in 2008-09 and 30% down on the year. 

Though drought is less extreme this year, the USDA is still too optimistic on Argentina corn production predicting a 29 million metric ton harvest, setting a new record    The Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange has confirmed there was irreversible damage in late December from heat and moisture stress in pollinating corn.    

 

 

Brazil Drought Worse than Analog Year

Growing conditions in South Brazil are drier than 2008-09, the analog year for a moderately strong La Nina.   Compare the 2008 October-December rainfall to precipitation this year in the same period.  Both Rio Grande do Sul and western Parana appear drier than 3 years ago.   Indeed, Rio Grande do Sul was wetter than normal in 2008:     

 

Mato Grosso Corn Production a Wild Card

Corn production in Mato Grosso has been expanding by leaps and bounds the past 5 years.   Corn is produced as a second crop, planted after short-season soybeans are harvested in February-March.  High corn production in Mato Grosso if it occurs may offset losses in South Brazil to a large degree. 

Mato Grosso corn output in 2010-11  was very disappointing due to drought.   Monsoon rainfall suddenly shut off before corn was finished filling kernels, leading to a reduced yield.  Growers are hoping  with a  timely soybean harvest this year,  corn planting would be accomplished earlier,  extending the growing season and insuring generous rainfall for grain filling in corn. 

Mato Grosso corn output is the wild card in the Brazil corn production picture.