North Dakota Spring Wheat Production Projected Sharply Lower in 2011

August 31, 2011

North Dakota wheat fell to a season-low 63% good-excellent, 28% fair and 9% poor on the August 28 report. Harvested spring wheat in central North Dakota is coming in 33% lower than last year.  A reduced planted area makes production prospects even worse.   

North Dakota spring wheat plantings were estimated down 10% from 2010 in the USDA August crop production report.   Local officials believe the wheat area may be much lower.   A June newspaper report from the Fargo Forum claimed that 30% of state farmland may have gone unplanted from delayed snow melt and heavy  river flooding.   The hourglass on planting ran out in mid June.

Quality Losses Feared in a Delayed Harvest

North Dakota wheat is maturing late.  This is because of serious spring planting delays.  Spring wheat harvesting in the state reached just 43% complete August 28, and 10-12 days behind the normal pace.     Grains lying in the swath to dry are affected by morning dampness from peresistent dew.   Mold is more apt to occur. 

The daylight hours in September rapidly shorten in the northern latitudes, leading to cooler temperatures and  less-efficient grain drying.  Lower quality wheat is a real concern if the harvest gets strung out in September.

August 1 Wheat Production Estimate Too High

North Dakota hard red spring wheat production was pegged at 228 million bushels in the August 1 report from USDA and 18% down on the season.  A rapid decline in wheat conditions suggests the harvest may finish even lower.    

The USDA wheat yield was given at  40 bushels per acre and much better than what has been seen in the early-harvested yields.   Last season, the yield was 44 bushels per acre and just 10% above the current projection.

In the 5 weeks since July 31, wheat has lost 15% in the top 2 categories good and excellent, while gaining 5% in poor-very poor.   The most recent report is a season low  63% good-excellent, 28% fair and 9% poor-very poor. 

The likely cause of a poor outcome in wheat is too much rainfall.   Growers have mentioned disease and insect pressure, but fields were too wet to spray.   The June-August rainfall was 11.8 inches and 44% above normal: