Rainfall Extremes in Brazil Soybeans

February 15, 2012

Mato Grosso is turning wet in mid February,  hampering soybean harvesting,  while South Brazil drought worsens in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul.

The key center-west soybean area of Mato Grosso has turned suddenly wet in recent days, while South Brazil has continued abnormally dry.   

 

Scattered strong thunderstorms developed again last night in the Mato Grosso Center-West soy area:

Mato Grosso temperatures reached only the upper 70s F Tuesday, very unusual in the Brazil tropics.  Thick clouds and recurring showers blocked the hot tropical sun.   In South Brazil, Rio Grande do Sul temperatures reached 98 - 102 F.    

 

Severe Crop Damage With Intense Drought

Rio Grande do Sul has built up a 4-inch rainfall deficit with intense drying over the past 30 days.  Only 55-58% of normal rainfall has occurred in the past month with extreme heat.  Severe crop damage is anticipated.   Rio Grande do Sul is the number 3 top soybean state and 4th largest corn producer.   

Parana crop potential is relatively better than Rio Grande do Sul due to less extreme heat.  Drought has been severe in the wesstern areas of the state with less than 50% normal rainfall.    Parana is Brazil's leading corn state and 2nd biggest soybean state.

Drought is also affecting northern Argentina a soybean growing area.

 

February has been extremely hot in South Brazil.  Maximum temperature anomalies of 3-4 C are equivalent to  5-7 F above normal.  

 

South Brazil is  expecting a few showers in the next 5 days, but rainfall would still be well below normal. Mato Grosso continues with a wet forecast.

 

 

Heavy Rain Coming to Argentina Grains

As drought worsens in South Brazil,  Argentina's forecast is turning wet again.   A few strong thunderstorms have already developed in La Pampa and western Buenos Aires, shown on the overnight rainfall map.  These are important corn areas:

Argentina is expecting very heavy rainfall over the next several days, particularly in Buenos Aires and Entre Rios  where 3-4 inches of rainfall is predicted.  Santa Fe and Cordoba would get 1-2 inches.   Scroll up to see heavy rainfall for Argentina soybeans in the  5-day rainfall outlook.   

Very hot temperatures have prevailed in Argentina in the summer growing season, keeping evaporation elevated and reducing benefits from showers recently.