Record Australia Wheat Harvest Anticipated

December 6, 2011

News from Australia indicates a record wheat harvest may be coming.   

Harvesting is currently underway, rather advanced in Western Australia but just beginning in the southeastern Australia wheat growing areas Victoria and New South Wales. 

ABARE Forecast Sharply Higher

The new wheat production estimate from ABARE is 8% higher than first expected, now pegged at a record 28.286 million metric tons by the government agency.   This would expand the country's wheat exports to 21.6 million metric tons, also setting a record, above the previous record exports 19.225 million metric tons  in 1996-97.    Australia’s small population generates a large surplus of wheat for export.

La Nina usually promotes higher wheat production and exports, due to above-normal rainfall in Eastern Australia.    The notable exception was the 2007-08 crop season.

United States Wheat Loss is Australia's Gain

United States bread wheat supplies are sharply reduced because of poor hard red wheat production in 2010-11.    A severe drought damaged winter wheat in the bread basket shrinking production in Texas, Oklahoma and Kansas.   North Dakota made a poor harvest from too much wetness the top producer of hard red spring wheat and second biggest US wheat state.

Bread wheat production declined 25 percent in the 2010-2011 crop season year,  severely hampering export potential.  US wheat exports are expected to shrink to 26.5 million metric tons  and 8.5 MMT less than last year.  At the same time,  Australia exports would rise to a record 21.6 million metric tons.

Crop potential has improved in Eastern Australia wheat from heavy rain recently, improving kernel filling in  southern New South Wales, South Australia and Victoria.    The  Western Australia harvest accelerated with drier conditions.  

Extreme October wetness threatened wheat quality in Western Australia causing a portion of the bumper harvest to be downgraded to feed wheat.