Rising Trend in Russia Grain Production

December 2, 2011

The 2010-11 Russia grain harvest reached  92 million metric tons and 2-3 million tonnes higher than originally expected.    Wheat production finished at 56.5 million metric tons and 36% higher than last year's drought-ravaged 41.51 million metric tons.

Russia 2011-12 grain production may reach 95-100 million metric tons based on expert opinion from Andrey Sisov Sr, chief economist and CEO of  SovEcon.   Mr. Sisov is upbeat on new crop production due to favorable winter-grain planting conditions and sharply higher acreage than last year.   The winter crop grain area would be up 14% from 2010. 

In the first official estimate of the new crop, SovEcon pegs winter grains at 45.5 million metric tons, comprised of 39.5 million tonnes of winter wheat.    

 

Winter Wheat Planting Woes in 2010 

Very dry field conditions  were the main reason for abnormally small plantings in 2010-11 winter wheat.  The same drought that damaged  summer grains  lingered on into the fall in 2010.  SovEcon estimates perhaps 15% of winter grains were never sown.  The Volga District was especially hard hit by drought,  reducing the total area of winter wheat planted.

 

Field Moisture Improved, Yields Increased

Very heavy rain and snow developed after the planting window closed in 2010.  Precipitation became very heavy late in fall and winter.  Indeed, field moisture in the key Volga District was  fully replenished  for wheat development in the spring.    The 14-15% cut in the planted area nevertheless reduced winter grain production. 

 

Wetter Planting Conditions for 2011-12 Grains

New crop prospects are improved with increased plantings and closer to the 18 million hectare target for Russia winter grains.   The Volga winter wheat is off to a favorable start with very ample field moisture for fall growth and development.   This is a very important wheat growing area.

Note Ukraine wheat planting conditions were worse than a year ago with low rainfall.

 

 

 

Dry Recently in Russia Winter Grains

Precipitatation has lightened up in the past 2 months falling well below average in the Black Earth and Southern District.   The 4 districts Volgograd, Rostov, Krasnodar and Stavropol make up more than half of Russia wheat.  

At the moment,  Mr Sisov is not too worried,  saying market concerns winter sowings in the south of the country would not develop properly remain "premature to judge just yet”.   Ideally,  wheat needs warmth and generous moisture this winter to increase growth and development.

 

The Volga vegetation was green in early November and better than the long-term mean.  Gray areas where no data is available indicate dormant crops.     Sub-par growth was confirmed in the Southern District in early November in Krasnodar and Stavropol.   The late November vegetation image was not provided, due to a lack of growth with much colder temperatures.