Russia Winter Wheat Potential Much Improved From Year Ago

October 26, 2011

Wheat potential in Russia is much improved over last year especially in the Volga a swing area that produces 22% of the crop.

Favorable Volga soil moisture in August–September helped wheat planting off to a timely start.  Growth and development was bolstered by generous rainfall.  

Fifty days of growing time is considered optimal for winter wheat development in Russia. With timely planting, wheat would be tillering before cooler temperatures stop growth. The highest potential yields occur with these criteria, based on research from Russia agronomists.  Recurring showers and moderate temperatures have  promoted favorable wheat development this season.

 

Northern wheat must be planted in August to guarantee sufficient time for “hardening” . Vernalization is a natural process that occurs with decreasing daylight hours and steady cooling in the fall.   Optimum hardiness was achieved in the Volga with timely planting and favorable fall growing conditions.  This is a huge advantage in a northern wheat growing area where winters are harsh and the snow coverage unreliable.

The October vegetation image, generated by satellite, shows deep green in the Volga, verifying a healthy start in winter wheat , an area that generates 22% of national wheat output.  

 

Russia winter wheat areas were extremely dry last year, a carryover from historic summer drought.   See the year-ago vegetation below.   Conditions were so dry the  planted area was sharply reduced.  In effect, the  "safe" date for planting wheat ran out in the Volga.   SovEcon  estimated Russia winter-grain sowings were down 15%-18%.   

Increased rain and snow greatly improved field moisture for spring growth and development.  Cool spring weather was ideal for small grains.  Yet, the sharply reduced winter wheat plantings prevented Russia from making a stellar grain harvest   2010-2011.  

Estimates for Russia grain production are clustering around 90 million metric tons, compared with a normal grain harvest of 96-97 million tonnes.   Good yields, but a small grain area in the Volga.

Breaking news:  Russia harvested 95 million metric tons of grain up to October 25, Dow Jones News reported.  Ninety-six percent of the harvest was in.   Higher production probably came from favorable spring grain production outweighing losses in winter grains.   

 

Black Earth New Crop Wheat Subpar

New crop winter wheat potential is not as promising in the fertile Black Earth, a key producing area north and east of Ukraine.   This farmland is very fertile, normally offering the highest wheat yields in Russia.

The planting season started well enough with ample August rainfall,  but September turned extremely dry and warm.   This was an extension of very severe Ukraine drought.    Field moisture deteriorated rapidly leading to mediocre wheat establishment.  The Black Earth grain area is light green on the Russia total-grain map, north of Ukraine.

In a typical year  Black Earth wheat contributes 20% -21% to Russia production from exceptional yields.   A less than stellar beginning to the new crop season, with poor planting rains,  suggests production may be disappointing in 2011-12.

 

 

Southern District Needs Rain, Better Than Year Ago

The Russia Southern region and North Caucasus grows more than 50% of winter wheat.  It is the largest wheat growing area in the nation.   Four districts make up winter wheat production Volgograd, Rostov, Krasnodar and Simferopol.   Fall planting rains have been variable and generally below normal.

 

Compared to last season,  prospects are vastly improved.  Like the rest of Russia very dry fields from intense summer drought in 2010 carried over into the fall,  hindering wheat planting and development.   

The Black Sea has a moderating effect on the winter climate in southern Russia.   Even if wheat gets planted late,  a prolonged fall growing period affords more time for development.  Wheat may even grow on and off in the winter in the 2 southern districts Krasnodar and Simferopol.  The winter climate is rather wet, another bonus for the yield, typically replenishing soil profiles for spring growth.

Very favorable winter wheat potential in the Volga tips the scales heavily to the positive side in Russia wheat production for 2011-12.   Black Earth wheat potential is not very promising presently, but a snowy winter if it occurs would go a long way toward increasing  field moisture for wheat growth in the spring.   The Southern District wheat has a more forgiving climate and may benefit from generous winter precipitation.