Sharply Reduced Bread Wheat Supplies in 2011

September 30, 2011

 

United States wheat production was downgraded to  2.008 billion bushels in the  September 30 Small Grains Report and 9% lower than 2010.   Wheat is comprised of winter wheat, spring wheat and durum.

Winter wheat production was very slightly reduced (less than 1 percent) to 1.494 billion bushels, finishing virtually the same as 2010.    Spring wheat production was very disappointing, however, down 25% from last year and 463 million bushels.    Adding durum , 52 million bushels, raises the harvest  total to 2 billion bushels.  

 

Sharply Reduced Bread Wheat Supplies

Poor harvests in Kansas and North Dakota, the top 2 US wheat states, contributed to low supplies of hard red wheat used in making bread.   Historic drought in Oklahoma and Texas , also key bread-wheat states,  sharply reduced supplies of the high-protein wheat.

 

The breakdown by wheat class reveals a 23 percent cut in hard red winter wheat from a year ago,  780 million bushels against 1.018 billion bushels in 2010.   Soft red winter wheat increased 92%  to  457.5 million bushels.   White winter wheat which is mostly soft wheat rose 12% bigger from last year to 256.1 million bushels.

 

The message:   Soft wheat fared better than hard wheat in the 2011 harvest.    Last year, hard wheat production exceeded soft wheat by a 7 to 3 ratio.  Hard wheat supplies were more than twice as abundant providing plenty of  high-protein wheat for domestic food needs and exports.  It is way different in 2011 with relatively high amounts of soft wheat.   The ratio of hard to soft wheat is 5 to 3.     Simply put, there is a shortage of bread wheat.

 

Very Poor Spring Wheat Harvest

Drought in the Southern Great Plains was bad enough,  taking a large bite out of the hard red winter wheat crop.     Hopes were a bumper spring wheat crop would offset the deficit.  A host of weather problems prevented a bumper spring wheat harvest.  The final production was only  462.5 million bushels and 25% lower than last year.    

North Dakota,  the US second biggest wheat state,  reported yields 18% below trend.     The harvested area shrank 13% due to serious planting delays and summer flooding.   It was the smallest wheat area in the state since 1988.

 

Winter wheat production was down  sharply in Kansas, the top US wheat state.     Devastating losses occurred in the  southern Plains,  Oklahoma and Texas,   from  historic drought.