South Brazil Forecast Dry, Argentina Turning Wet

February 13, 2012

Dry weather is expected to persist  in South Brazil along with intensifying heat, while Argentina expects additional heavy rainfall toward the end of the week. 

Brazil growing conditions have deteriorated in southern farm states Rio Grande do Sul and Parana from worsening drought the past 3-4 weeks.  Temperatures in the mid and upper 90s F have been very common even touching 100 F a few days since mid January. 

Rio Grande do Sul received some rain last week, between .75 inch and 1.25 inch, but this was against a backdrop of very hot temperatures.    Parana Brazil's leading corn state and second top soybean state was rather dry: 

 

Hot temperatures stressed corn and soybeans in western Rio Grande do Sul.  Most days in February were 95 F or higher.  Four days were near 100 F:

Drought has worsened in South Brazil corn and soybeans over the past 3-4 weeks, while Argentina soybeans stabilized in Santa Fe, Buenos Aires and Entre Rios with generous rainfall.  

 

February heat has been a stressor for South Brazil corn and soybeans.  Maximum temperatures have been  4-5 C above normal (7-9 F).   

Temperatures in South Brazil would moderate a bit over the next few days.  However, the extreme heat is expected to resume in Rio Grande do Sul and  northern Argentina, with highs over 90 F:

 

A few more showers are possible in Parana but virtually nothing for Rio Grande do Sul and Argentina in the 3-day outlook.    At the same time,  a super-wet forecast in Mato Grosso could mean 5-7 inches of rainfall this week,  stalling soybean harvesting the western growing area.    

 

The extended range forecast suggests more heavy rain is coming to Argentina.  Three to 5 inches of rainfall is indicated for Buenos Aires, Sante Fe and Cordoba, the leading farm provinces:

 

Brazil Corn and Soybean Estimates May Decline

Brazil corn prospects are worse than USDA reckons due to South Brazil crop stress.    The USDA February Brazil corn estimate stayed at 61 million metric tons, which would set a new record.   The summer corn harvest accounts for around 65% of total corn production, very  heavily concentrated in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul where conditions are dry.

The USDA lowered its estimate for Brazil soybeans 2 million metric tons to 72 MMT.  That would still be the second biggest harvest behind last year’s 75.50 MMT.    For more on soybean potential refer to the story “Stressful Dry Weather Taking a Toll on Brazil Soybeans”:

http://www.martellcropprojections.com/CropProductionReports/Stressful-Hot-Dry-Weather-Taking-a-Toll-on-Brazil-Soybeans