Stormy Midwest Forecast, Turning Colder by Weekend

February 21, 2012

Midwest weather has been benign, mild and rather dry,  but looks stormy and turning colder this weekend.  While the new forecast is wet across the northern United States, it is dry in hard red winter wheat.  In summary the forecast this week still indicates a La Nina influence.  

Showers developed Monday in the Great Plains from a fast-moving weather disturbance.

 

Rain and snow progressed eastward across the Mississippi River.  See the morning radar snapshot valid at 6:30 am CT:

 

The Tuesday-Thursday temperature forecast remains warmer than normal:

 

The 7-day precipitation forecast  is wet across the northern tier of the United States but dry in hard red winter wheat.    Dry areas in the Northern Rockies, Northern Great Plains and Midwest are expecting good moisture.  Much of it is coming later this week.  Finally, the Southeast United States is expecting heavy soaking rains, badly needed to alleviate drought.

 

Very dry conditions occurred over the past 30 days in  northern spring wheat and corn growing areas.   Field moisture has improved in  hard red winter wheat with generous precipitation.   Texas cattle grazing conditions are much improved from heavy rain that also has increased stock water for animals.  

 

 

Unsettled weather with light rain or snow would continue through Thursday morning with weak low pressure present in the Great Lakes and Upper Midwest.   

 

See precipitation chances tomorrow and Thursday on the maps below.  This would be snowfall in the northern Great Plains and Upper Great Lakes.

 

The Friday jet stream forecast shows a trough of low pressure in Central United States.  Not only would conditions be unsettled but also turning much colder.

 

The Sunday night temperatures are colder than normal,  unusual following very mild weather February to date:  

 

 

February has been unseasonably warm: 

 

The GFS model confirms a colder weather pattern in North America.  Below see a deep trough in North-Central United States in the 5-day average jet stream forecast:

 

The Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day outlook is cold over most of the United States, except for the southern and eastern fourth of the country: 

 

Precipitation would favor the Mid South and Eastern Midwest, up through Northeast United States.  The Northern Corn Belt would have normal precipitation, while hard red winter wheat would be dry:

 

In summary the forecast this week still indicates a La Nina influence as shown on the winter jet stream map below: