Stressful Hot Dry Weather Taking a Toll on Brazil Soybeans

February 10, 2012

Intense heat and worsening drought is taking a toll on Brazil corn and and soybeans in February.   Roughly 50% of soybeans are at risk for a reduced yield, the worst damage occurring in the southern soybean states Parana and Rio Grande do Sul.   

The USDA cut Brazil's 2011-12 soybean harvest by 2 million metric tons in the February report, reducing the crop to 72 million metric tons.  But is a 3% reduction enough?  We think not, as heat and moisture stress worsens in February.  

Parana crops were stressed by extremely dry conditions last week.  Virtually no rain developed, a remarkable happening in a wet sub-tropical climate.  Normally  1.35 inches  to 1.5 inches of rain occurs each week in the summer growing season.  Parana is the second leading soybean state with a 20% share of production.

At the same time Argentina crops received heavy rainfall in recurring showers.  Farm agencies claimed the rain was too late to help corn, but that late-developing soybeans may benefit somewhat:

 

Very Hot Temperatures

Above normal temperatures prevailed last week in northern Argentina and southern Brazil, keeping stress on crops,  even where heavy rainfall occurred:

Rain showers moved north out of Argentina into Southern Brazil, weakening in Rio Grande do Sul and Parana Thursday night:

 

 

The heat anomaly map below shows an intense area of heat in the Brazil tropics in the 4 days February 5-9. Mato Grosso was affected along with tropical soybeans in  Goias, Minas Gerais, Sao Paulo and Bahia.  

This is a satellite generated product.  Earth heat escaping to outer space is captured, then compared to a long-term mean value to produce the anomaly map shown below. 

For ground truth, we checked maximum temperatures from the Brazil national weather service.  Extremely hot conditions have prevailed February 1 - 10 in Mato Grosso and neighboring Goias in the tropics.  Heat was very intense in South Brazil with temperature anomalies of 4-5 C (7-9 F).

  

The 21 day rainfall analysis shows broad areas of dryness in Brazil soybeans, the worst conditions in South Brazil.

 

 

 We estimate that more than 50% of soybeans are at risk for a reduced yield from heat and moisture stress, the worst crop damage in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul.      

 

The forecast for next week remains drier than normal in the South America interior,  northern Argentina, Paraguay, Parana and Rio Grande do Sul. 

 

For more information on Brazil drought and corn damage click on this link:

 http://www.martellcropprojections.com/CropProductionReports/Brazil-Corn-Production-Estimate-Overly-Optimistic