Swing State Texas Facing Poor Wheat Harvest

January 18, 2012

Severe drought in Texas will lead to a poor harvest in 2012 as a large share of wheat planted will be abandoned.

Texas wheat has declined with the return of dry weather to the Southern Great Plains.  The percentage of wheat in the good-excellent category fell to 22%  January 15.   Poor-very poor wheat now comprises 56% of Texas wheat making the worst conditions since November 20. 

Poor wheat conditions do not bode well for the new harvest. February is the time when producers decide whether to keep wheat or graze it out to cattle, using the crop as a feed grain.   Damaged wheat land, not worth harvesting, may be planted with cotton, sorghum or corn in the spring.

Texas is a swing state in hard red wheat production.  Each year, a portion of wheat is planted with the intention of deliberately grazing cattle on it.     In years of drought,  the percentage of wheat “abandoned” not harvested for grain  is very high.    Texas wheat losses in the 2005-06 crop season set a record when 75% of planted wheat was never harvested for grain. 

Drought is not the only factor determining how much wheat will go un-harvested.  It also depends on the cost of cattle feed and market beef prices.

West Texas,  the district that produces 55% of state wheat,  has experienced the driest planting conditions since the 1950s.     Only 6.7 inches rainfall has accrued in the 6 months,  June through December,  leading to a 6.1 inch moisture deficit.

After rather generous rainfall  late November-mid December,  growing conditions have gone dry once again in January. 

The 6 months July-December 2011 was the one worst droughts in Texas history: