US Crop Conditions Continue to Slide South

September 7, 2011

 

The September 4 USDA crop report revealed a further decline in corn and soybeans. Spring wheat harvesting was too far advanced for condition reports to be issued.

 

Soybeans Continue To Decline

The worst deterioration in soybeans has occurred in the key Midwest producing states with worsening late summer drought. Iowa “good-excellent” soybeans fell to 62%, 18% down from 6 weeks earlier.  Illinois fell 12%, Missouri 14%, Minnesota 8% and Indiana 7%.  Worsening crop conditions are a bad omen for the yield. Any moisture stress during August reduces the number of pods set and size of soybeans developing in the pod.   Click to see where soybeans are grown.  Corn is confined mostly to the Midwest.

Iowa soybeans declined despite good rainfall last week, the top state with an 18% share of US production:

Iowa’s worse soy ratings came as big surprise since 1.5 inches of rainfall accumulated last week.  It was the first time since June weekly rains were that heavy.    We expected improvement.   It is not too late in the growing season for soybeans to benefit from rainfall as pod filling continues.   Only 2% of Iowa soybeans were shedding leaves, the period of maturity when plant activity begins winding down.

 

Soybean Estimates Declining

Intense drought in Midwest soybeans points to a reduced harvest, below the USDA 3.06 billion bushel estimate from August 1 conditions.   Lanworth, using satellite imagery, pegs US soybean production at 2.969 billion bushels and down 87 million bushels from USDA’s August peg.   Most analysts are  slightly above 3 billion bushels for new-crop soybeans.  The highest estimate, issued by Informa this week, is  3.3 billion bushels.

 

Corn Deteriorates Again, Illinois Drought Losses Severe

US corn prospects continue to deteriorate confirmed by a worse ratings again on September 4 and 52% good-excellent, 27% fair and 21% poor-very poor.  

 

Iowa the US top corn state has fallen 25% in the good-excellent category in the 6 weeks ending September 4, while gaining 13% in poor-very poor.  Illinois corn is presently 24% poor-very poor.   Indiana is worse with 28% in the low-rated categories.  

 

The best corn is in Nebraska, the 3rd largest producing state, with 75% good-excellent, 17% fair and 8% poor-very poor.   Corn is heavily irrigated in Nebraska explaining the much better conditions compared to the rest of the Midwest.

 

The hot summer conditions spurred corn development, forcing rapid ripening despite a cool spring and delayed planting.  Illinois corn was 88% denting and ahead of the 73% average.  Corn mature was 33% compared to 27% normally  September 4.  

 

Summer drought in central Illinois is the worst in the Midwest.  Consider Decatur, Illinois,  receiving only .59 inch of rainfall the past 6 weeks, accruing a 6.4 inch moisture deficit in the 40 days since July 28 .   Huge losses in corn production will come from Illinois drought.   The second largest corn state Illinois normally produces around 20% of the national harvest.  

 

Hard Red Winter Wheat Prospects Damaged By Drought

The morning radar showed a few showers in western Kansas, the first moisture in many weeks.  There is a long way to go to resolve drought.  Dodge City in the key southwest district has a 12 inch moisture deficit from severe drought June-September.  The warm season is normally the wettest time of the year, replenishing soil moisture in winter wheat farms.

 

It is the same story in Oklahoma and West Texas, where soil moisture deficiencies are too severe to overcome.

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