Ukraine Corn Exports Anticipated To Be Large

September 9, 2011

Bloomberg News reported September 2 that Ukraine corn exports this year could reach 9.25 million metric tons setting a new record.  If the forecast verifies, Ukraine would be poised to overtake Brazil as the world's third largest corn exporter.   The United States the top world producer of the key feed grain may see corn exports shrink to a 14-year low from drought. Ukraine corn exports would help fill the gap.

The 9.25 million metric tons of corn exports from Ukraine was a median guess from analysts and traders queried by Bloomberg who projected corn production at a record 16.8 million metric tons.  The USDA in August projected  Ukraine corn at 16.5 million metric tons with exports of 8.5 mmt.  

Wheat Exports Recovering, Quality Reduced by Rain

The Ukraine Minister of Agriculture projects total grain exports may be  51 million metric tons in 2011-12. That compares to  39.2 million tons in 2010-11, following  severe summer drought. The  government mandated a grain  export ban during most of the 2011-12 marketing season to insure sufficient supplies for domestic consumption. The export ban was lifted in May.  

Wheat is traditionally the Ukraine biggest export grain. The new crop is expected to be above average near 21 million metric tons. Originally,  a much larger harvest  was anticipated, but spring drought and heat caused serious damage.    Excessive rainfall at the harvest further reduced crop quality.  

Twice normal rainfall in the summer harvest reduced wheat quality:

Wheat exports in 2011-12 would more than double from last year, when an export ban was in effect.  A significant portion of wheat may end up being sold as a feed grain.

Between a record Ukraine corn harvest and low- grade wheat there would be abundant feed grains available for export.  This is a big deal given that United States corn exports are set to shrink from a sharply reduced harvest.