Ukraine Drought Hampering Fall Planted Wheat and Rapeseed

October 8, 2011

Incredibly dry weather has developed in the southern Ukraine hindering fall planted  wheat and rapeseed.   The average rainfall in 9 southern Ukraine weather stations averaged only .59 inch in the 60 days August 7 - October 5,  and just 19% of normal.   This was based on rainfall  reports  in 9 weather stations in the southern Ukraine where winter crops are intensively cultivated.

Ukraine wheat production in 2010-11,  20.87 million metric tons,  was a 35% increase over the previous year,  when historic drought occurred.   The roller coaster ride may continue with a reduced harvest in 2012.

Usually a bad beginning makes a poor ending.   Dry conditions are slowing crop growth and development and shrinking the time needed for crop establishment in fall.   Yield potential may suffer from a inadequate fall development.    Moreover, to acquire maximum winter hardiness, wheat and rapeseed need sufficient time to grow and develop, at least a few weeks, before dormancy sets in.  Soil erosion is another risk threatening crop health.    Ultra-dry soils are prone to blowing in the winter.  Dense top growth and strong roots would serve to hold the  soil in place. 

Vegetation was sparse in late September and worse than the 5-year average.  This confirms drought:

See where winter wheat is grown in Ukraine.  No map is available for rapeseed.