Buenos Aires Dryness May Reflect La Nina

October 28, 2011

Watching Drought in Buenos Aires Argentina

Dry conditions in southern Argentina, Buenos Aires province, often is the first indicator of La Nina drought in South America.  

Argentina’s southern corn state Buenos Aires experienced frost on 2-3 nights last week but not a hard freeze.

October weather has been dry and cool, and not conducive to corn planting and growth.  Conditions are dry in central and southern Buenos Aires on the map below.  Very positive conditions for corn planting are present in Cordoba, Santa Fe and Entre Rios with ample field moisture and moderate temperatures.

We are following the dry weather closely in Buenos Aires, since this southern province is usually the first to manifest drought when the La Nina is in effect.

Marcos Juarez, Cordoba, is wet, favorable for corn planting and development:

Tandil is dry in Buenos Aires:

Difference of Opinion on La Nina 

Scientists in the United States and Australia are divided on how strong La Nina may be.   Both the Australia Bureau of Meteorology and the Climate Prediction Center acknowledge that La Nina is in effect, based on colder than normal equatorial seas in the Eastern Pacific Ocean.    

A rather weak La Nina is projected by the Australia Bureau of Meteorology compared to last year's very strong event. The Climate Prediction Center disagrees, holding to a forecast for a strong event December-February. 

Sea surface temperatures in the Nino 3.4 region are -0.85 C below normal indicating a weak-moderate La Nina: