Corn Damage from Argentina Heat and Moisture Stress

January 3, 2012

December closed on a very dry note in leading South America corn areas with under 50% of normal rainfall in South Brazil and Argentina.  See where Brazil and Argentina corn is grown.

November was wet in Argentina,  making drought relatively less severe.   Yet with hot temperatures, stress on corn and soybeans is increasing in the grain belt.  Top corn provinces are Buenos Aires, Cordoba and Santa Fe.  

Bolivar in western Buenos Aires was extremely hot in December, a key corn growing area:

Pollinating Corn Subject to Damage

Early planted corn was going through the critical pollination stage in late December in the central farm belt, the Buenos Aires Cereals Exchange said, a period when corn moisture demands peak.  This caused irreversible damage to corn, the Exchange said.  

Eighty percent of Argentina corn was reportedly sown out of an expected record area in corn.   The USDA predicts 22% more corn will be sown this season,  due to attractive high prices. 

Despite high plantings last year,  2010-11,  corn production fell short of expectations due to La Nina-inspired drought.    Final production was 22.5 million metric tons.  The USDA anticipates record corn production in 2011-12 and 29 million metric tons.     Exceptional high output is  predicated on high acreage and an average yield.

The corn yield was down 17% below trend in 2010-11 from drought.  Note that USDA always employs a trend yield to begin each new growing season.  As more information becomes available on crop potential the yield is adjusted accordingly.   At the moment an average corn yield seems highly unlikely.    

Soybean Chances Better

Argentina soybeans would still have a chance to make a decent yield if rainfall increases sharply the balance of the summer growing season.   Pod filling in southern South America occurs in February and March, the most critical time for determining the yield.

Spotty showers developed overnight in Buenos Aires province the first rain in over a month: 

The 7-day forecast is dry.  With La Nina in effect, high pressure keep recurring in southern South America, dominating the weather in the Argentina grain belt: