Corn, Soybeans and Wheat Projected Sharply Lower

September 6, 2011

 

Corn Estimates Keep Going Lower

The Pro Farmer Crop Tour covering 7 states projected a national corn yield of 147.9 bushels per acre compared to 152.8 bushels last season.  This was followed by FC Stone’s national corn yield peg of 146.3 bushels per acre and down from 153.2 bushels per acre in August.   Following that Friday came a Lanworth projection, based on satellite analysis, of only 143.3 bushels per acre.  The Lanworth corn yield would be 10% below trend and the worst showing for US corn since 1995, using the percent-of trend measure.

August drought worsened in Iowa, Illinois, Minnesota, Indiana and Wisconsin on the US Drought Monitor. Conditions August 30 ranged from abnormally dry in southern Minnesota and northwest Iowa to severe in southeast Iowa, central Illinois and parts of central Indiana.

 

Even a 1-inch rain is not enough to stem the tide of deterioration, soaking into parched fields and not addressing crop needs.   Drought is always knocking on the door, when field conditions are extremely dry. Farms hit hard by drought in the Midwest heartland accrued a 4-6 inch moisture deficit in July-August and less than half of normal rainfall. 

 

 

What about Soybeans?

The main pod setting and bean-filling period occurs in August and September, requiring heavy rainfall for a favorable yield. The Pro Farmer tour projected a US soybean yield of 41.8 bushels per acre and 3% below trend.  The pod count was down below average in the tour samples.  The size of soybeans in the pod is the second part of the yield equation.  Agronomists claim that soybean sizing continues in the pod until all the leaves on the plant have yellowed and half have fallen off.  Thus, September weather is still important for soybeans.

 

As of August 28, United States soybeans were rated 57% good-excellent, 28% fair and 15% poor-very poor. This was a season low.  Generous rainfall has occurred since then in many areas of the Upper Midwest.  Given ultra-dry field conditions, however, soybeans may not improve very much unless very heavy rainfall develops this month.

 

The 1995 July growing conditions in the Midwest were a good match for corn,  which finished 10% below trend. August weather improved markedly with heavy rainfall, however.    Yet despite the increased rain, the national soybean yield was still was not very good and 4% below trend. The message is that United States soybean production estimates may trail lower than current projections.  See a dry August in Midwest soybean states:

 

North Dakota Wheat Yields Falling

The top spring wheat state North Dakota is expecting a low harvest this season from sharp losses from both the crop yield and area planted.  The wheat sown area is projected down at least 15% from too-wet planting conditions in the spring and unusually cold weather.   Harvesting results in the early going are coming in as much as 35% below last year in central North Dakota.  Bad wheat yields may be stemming from too-wet conditions throughout the growing season.

 

It is ironic that, while Midwest crops suffered from severe summer drought, North Dakota rainfall would not stop. North Dakota received 11.8 inches of rainfall in the summer growing season and 44% above normal. Indeed, the June-August rainfall record is apt to be shattered.

 

 

 

Why Normal Weather is Always Best

Crops are produced in climatically favorable growing areas. For generations, corn and soybeans have been produced in the Midwest because the climate and soil conditions promote a profitable yield. The Northern Great Plains climate has proven to be ideal for spring wheat, making North Dakota the second largest wheat state in the country.   When growing conditions deviate too far from normal, crop damage is pronounced. The more extreme growing conditions are, the worse the yield damage is.  We may not have seen the bottom yet in crop yield projections.