Mato Grosso soybean prospects are improving with in a wet weather pattern, but drought is emerging in Parana and Rio Grande do Sul.
Growing conditions in Brazil’s farm belt have shifted, turning very wet in Mato Grosso, the top soybean state. Prospects are improving. A trough of low pressure has become entrenched across the Brazil tropics causing unstable weather with frequent showers. Heavy rains have occurred for the second straight week Jan 20-26.
Generous rainfall is predicted again in the week ahead. While this favors pod filling, it also creates a humid environment for fungus disease to spread. An increasing number of producers have reported incidence of rust in late January.
South Brazil Dryness a Concern
Soybeans in southern Brazil now are in jeopardy, needing heavy rainfall to rejuvenate corn and soybeans. The weather pattern has flip-flopped, now dry in southern Brazil, where December had previously been wet. Hardly any rain has occurred for 2 weeks in Parana and northern Rio Grande do Sul.
Parana and Rio Grande do Sul are very important farm states together growing 30% of Brazil soybeans and 24% of corn. A wave of showers is anticipated on the weekend, moving up from northern Argentina and Uruguay. The GFS model suggests only scattered showers in southern Brazil with below-normal rainfall. The Rio Grande do Sul forecast also is hot, calling for mid and upper 90s F.
Second-Crop Corn Harvest May Disappoint
The market seems less concerned about a corn shortage, due to Brazil's ability to grows a second crop in the winter season. Last season, a record Mato Grosso corn harvest offset drought losses in Parana summer. Winter corn production reached the highest level ever. Winter corn is grown in rotation with summer soybeans.
Another record Mato Grosso corn harvest may not be in the cards this year. The first soybeans were planted late, due to the delayed arrival of the rainy monsoon. Now, heavy rains are delaying the soybean harvest even further, claims Soybean and Corn Advisor Dr. Michael Cordonnier. This leaves even less time to plant a second crop of corn. Planting corn on a delayed timetable is risky, as the rainy season may end, before corn is finished filling grain.
Last year, winter monsoon rains were optimized with a timely harvest of Mato Grosso soybeans, that, in turn, led to rapid planting of winter corn. Record corn acreage also contributed to a bumper corn harvest, the largest ever produced in Mato Grosso.