US Weather and Crop Highlights

November 4, 2011

A stormy weather pattern has developed in the United States easing drought in the Midwest and providing hope for rain in hard red winter wheat.  

Rainfall last week was over 1 inch in scattered areas of the Midwest corn and soybean belt.  Growers are happy with heavy rain,  since harvesting is moving rapidly to a close.

 

A new storm system will reach the Great Plains Monday, but details on rainfall amounts are still sketchy. Yesterday the GFS model forecast was wetter than the new guidance which shows heavy, soaking rain just to the east of the main winter wheat area.

There is a sharp dividing line between .50-inch rains in Oklahoma-Kansas wheat and 1 inch + rainfall further east.

 

Likewise,  the Monday percent-chance-of-precipitation map shows the high risk rain area on the edge of the winter wheat belt.   

 

Soil Erosion a Risk in Southwest Plains

Strong gusty winds are predicted in Western Plains today and Saturday, ahead of a very strong cool front. Wind speeds may reach 30-35 miles per hour, gusting to 45 mph, Saturday.  This may cause blowing dirt in the Southwest Great Plains, where conditions are very dry.

No rain has occurred in over 2 weeks in the Southwest Plains, dry on the topsoil moisture map:  

 

Strong La Niña Would Perpetuate Southern Plains Drought

A new report was published yesterday Texas Wheat Fortunes Hinge on La Niña.   This is a case study showing how geneous winter rainfall improves wheat development.  There were 2 instances of profitable wheat harvests coming out of a wet winter despite extreme fall drought.  If the La Niña weakens, it would open the door for generous rainfall and increased wheat yields.   

 

Western Corn Belt Drought

Drought in Midwest key corn states was eased by scattered heavy rainfall this week, but there is a long way to go to replenish soil moisture.  Generous stored field moisture is a safeguard against drought in the 2012 corn growing season.

The 1- inch rains received this week were very helpful in eastern Iowa, Missouri, Illinois and Wisconsin occurring with a slow-moving, intense storm.   Nebraska also got valuable rainfall  .50 “ to 1”.   Stubborn drought continued in Minnesota and South Dakota , however.

The new forecast is hopeful for heavy soaking rain next week in swath covering northern Missouri, southeast Iowa, northern Illinois into Michigan further increasing soil moisture supplies.   However, there is a long way to go to cure drought. 

Rochester, Minnesota has a 8-9 inch moisture deficit in the 90 days ending November 2.   Iowa, western Illinois and Missouri have 6-7-inch moisture deficits.   Southern Wisconsin needs 4-5 inches of rain to get back to normal.

 

Wet October weather in the Eastern Midwest has bolstered field moisture, though Indiana and southern Michigan still need another 3-4 inches of rain to wipe out drought completely.   See the 90-day rainfall map showing worst drought in the Upper Midwest.