Hard Red Winter Wheat Would Benefit from a Wet Winter

November 28, 2011

Hard red winter wheat in the southern Great Plains has received very good rainfall in November.  Precipitation has been well above normal in Oklahoma and Kansas, particularly.  If generous precipitation continues throughout the winter, US wheat prospects may improve significantly.  This report gives reason for hope,  if December-March precipitation continues heavy.  See where winter wheat is grown.

Historically since 1980 there have been 8 years with extremely dry planting conditions August-October.  This season is included with 75% of normal rainfall in the top producing hard red winter wheat states.  

Very dry fall planting seasons occurred in 1980, 1982, 1988, 1990, 1994, 2000 and 2001.    A favorable wheat  harvest followed dry planting conditions in one-third of  the cases.

The lesson learned is that poorly-established wheat generally leads to poor production in the end.  The planting conditions are very important.   A good root system is required, reducing chances for soil erosion in the blustery winter.   When the topsoil is very dry, wind picks up the soil and pelts wheat,  shredding leaves and, in the worst case, even burying small plants.  Wheat not worth harvesting is “abandoned”,  grazed out to cattle and planted with another crop in the spring.

Generous Winter Rainfall Very Important

If precipitation increases in the November-March period, wheat has a chance to recover and make a good crop.  In the wide-open Great Plains,  wind is the main enemy.   Wet field conditions hold the soil in place.   Winterkill from cold temperatures is not typically a problem.   Rather it is soil erosion.

The long-term mean abandonment is 20% in hard red winter wheat.  A big portion of lost wheat acres comes from Texas, the top US beef cattle state, where wheat producers have the option of grazing damaged wheat to cattle.   Winters on the High Plains are particularly dry  making this area prone to soil erosion.

There were only 3 years when a wet November-March followed a super-dry planting season August-October. These years were 1982-83, 1994-95 and 2000-01.   Two of the 3 wet winters finished with a favorable wheat harvest, but 2000-01 made a poor wheat crop and 17% below the long-term mean. 

Clearly winter drought is the worst scenario after a dry fall increasing chances for wind damage, sparse wheat stands and reduced yields.