Australia Wheat Prospects Dimmed By Worsening Dryness

September 21, 2011

Growing conditions have too warm and dry in  eastern Australia, dimming prospects for the new wheat crop.    Virtually no rain has occurred in over a month in southern New South Wales and Victoria.   Extremely low humidity has contributed to a rapid decline in soil moisture.      

Dubbo New South Wales reached 87 F this week and 15-20 F above normal. 

Minimum temperatures were mid 40s F.   A 40 F difference between "highs" and "lows"  indicates desert-like conditions with exceptionally dry air.   Wheat is flowering in some areas of the state and needs generous rainfall to stem the tide of deterioration.  

Analyst Luke Mathews of the Commonwealth Bank of Australia predicts the national wheat harvest may not exceed 23.5 million metric tons,   compared to the official  26.2 million metric ton estimate from ABARE,   the  government agency.    The Eastern Australia wheat  estimate was trimmed to  11.5 million metric tons and 8.7% less than ABARE. 

Western Australia the top wheat state is expected to make an above-average crop.   Rainfall has been generous  with moderate temperatures,  contributing to more favorable  growing conditions.  

La Niña Wetness Not Observed

Eastern Australia has become progressively drier despite a  growing La Niña influence.    The Australia Bureau of Meteorology (BOM) says that steady cooling in the tropical Pacific Ocean recently – a hallmark of a developing La Niña -- is no guarantee of a strong La Niña.     If a La Niña does form,  it would be weaker than the strong 2010-11 event.     The Bureau predicts equal chances of above- or below- average rainfall across the north and east of the country in the next 3 months.

Last season,   a very strong  La Niña brought heavy rainfall to Eastern Australia,  contributing to a record wheat harvest in New South Wales and offsetting a very poor crop in Western Australia from drought.  

Strong cooling in the equatorial Pacific August to September indicates an evolving La Niña: