Buenos Aires Spring Drought Growing Severe

October 31, 2011

Argentina spring planting conditions are favorable in the northern half of the grain belt but Buenos Aires a key corn state has been very dry and abnormally cold.

Cordoba, a top corn producing province has benefited from several waves of showers in October.  Likewise,  field moisture is favorable for corn planting and development in  Santa Fe, the number 3 corn state and Entre Rios.   

It is a sharp contrast , very favorable for corn and soybeans in the northern grain belt but mediocre in Buenos Aires from worsening drought.    Field moisture steadily deteriorated in October with no rain for 3 weeks.  

Buenos Aires has been dry in most areas since August: 

Frost developed on several nights during the past week,  further stifling corn growth.  See minimum temperatures Sunday morning October 30:

Much cooler than normal temperatures, along with drought, slowed development in corn:

The forecast this week is hopeful for soaking rainfall.   Moderating  temperatures also are predicted. Perhaps this will be a turning point for Buenos Aires corn.

Winter wheat grown heavily in southern Buenos Aires has suffered irreversible damage from winter-spring drought and would not recover.   The Rosario Grain Exchange last week revised Argentina wheat production  lower to 12.50 million metric tons.    The previous harvest   2010-11 was 15 million metric tons and 20% bigger.    If winter wheat production finishes poorly, as predicted,  exports would be sharply curtailed in 2011-12.

La Niña  a Known Drought Maker 

Last year with a strong La Niña in effect, soybean production shrank to 49.0 million metric tons  from a record  54.50 MMT the previous growing season.   Santa Fe and Cordoba were especially hard hit.   Another strong La Niña in 2008-09 caused terrible drought in Buenos Aires corn.    The Argentina national corn harvest fell to 15.50 million metric tons and 30% below the 22.02 MMT produced in 2007-08.