China Corn Consumption Outstripping Production Capabilities

November 14, 2011

Large and increasing China corn feed consumption is driven by a growing demand for meat, especially among urban dwellers who have a higher standard of living.  China is expected to import at least 3 million metric tons of corn in 2011-12 to accommodate high feed grain consumption needs.   Corn imports may continue rising,  unless more productive yields are achieved. 

China Corn Consumption Fueled by Feed Sector

Strong Chinese demand for corn is not going away. China corn consumption has been pegged at 189 million metric tons in 2011-12 and 7.4% higher than last season. Corn demand from the feed sector used to fatten hogs and chickens comprises the largest amount of domestic consumption, 70% of total disappearance.

Research shows there is a close correlation 99% between increased pork production and the number of the country's urban dwellers, whose per capita meat consumption is far greater than that of their rural peers.

The 189 million metric tons of corn used  is an enormous increase from just 10 years ago, 54% higher using USDA estimates.   The food, seed and ethanol use is up 96% in the decade.

 

 

Corn Versus Soybeans 

The China corn planted area has increased 36% in the past decade and 2.2% higher than 2010.  China corn is heavily produced in the fertile Manchurian Plain.  The top corn provinces are Shandong, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Henan and Hebei.

 

Corn vs Soybeans

Soybeans compete with corn in Northeast China.  It would appear corn is winning the battle,  gaining acres at the expense of soybeans.   The soybean area this season was down 7.3% , using USDA estimates, lowering production to only 14 million metric tons, the second lowest in a decade.  Production of soybeans has been rather stable for 15-20 years.

 

The biggest problem confronting China in corn production is low yields.   The 2011 corn yield this season is pegged at 88.6 bushels per acre, compared to 146.7 bushels per acre in the United States.

 

China is seeking to improve technology in corn.   A contingent of Chinese was present at the late August Pro Farmer Crop Tour in  Grand Island, Nebraska.    Accompanying the group was US Grains Council president Thomas Dorr, who has made numerous trips to Northeast China in recent years for the purpose of learning more about China farming practices and corn needs.

 

US Seed Technology Boosts the Corn Yield 

United States corn yields have steadily improved due to genetically altered seeds that increase resistance to drought and insect pests such as the common corn borer.   Harvest  losses are reduced by stronger stalks and reduced ear-drop,  another benefit of seed technology improvements in the laboratory.      

At the same time,  Midwest agronomists continually conduct field experiments to explore ways to increase the yield.   Farmers are given advice on fertilizer applications, planting tips for high productivity, monitoring for pests and disease and the best time for herbicide and pesticide applications.

Large Midwest farm operations use oversized tractors for planting and harvesting corn.   Early seeding in the spring not only improves the yield potential, but also promotes an earlier harvest, before the first fall freeze.

New products are constantly coming on the market, different seed varieties and ancillary products for enhanced root development and weed control.   All these advancements are keeping United States corn yields on a steady upward trend  2.18 bushels per acre, per year.