China Grain Harvest Suspiciously Large

October 6, 2011

 

China is predicting a record grain harvest in 2011, the Vice Minister of Agriculture Chen Xiaohua announced last week.   The 550 million metric tons of grain would narrowly exceed last year’s record 547 MMT production, he said, adding it would be the eighth consecutive year of growth in agriculture.  High grain prices and government subsidies  encouraged farmers to grow more grain  government officials said.

Remarkably,  record grain production was achieved, despite severe drought in key rice growing areas, the largest contibutor to China  grain production.   The top two rice provinces Hunan and Jiangxi received only 50% of normal rainfall December to early May, causing so severe some reservoirs dried up.

Central China is normally a “water rich” area, permitting two crops of rice in rotation, an early and a late rice harvest. Perhaps only one crop was able to be produced because of restricted water supplies.  Hunan and Jiangxi together produce 25% of China rice, the most abundant food grain produced in China.  All together, rice makes up a quarter of total grains. 

China 2 top rice provinces Hunan Jiangxi and saw a 50% decline in average precipitation January to May, the Xinhua news agency in a report Lingering Spring Drought Hits Central, South China: http://www.china.org.cn/environment/2011-05/03/content_22487490.htm

 

Henan and Jiangxi together produce 25% of China rice. Jiangsu, the number 3 province also was very dry.

 

Below is a photo from the Xinhua news agency showing dried up reservoir in Hunan late in July:

 

Drought in Winter Wheat

Winter wheat also was in jeopardy from drought.   Dry planting conditions in the fall were observed in the North China Plain, not terribly worrisome, until winter drought intensified.  Unusually warm weather in winter contributed to moisture stress in wheat.   By early February,  the drought crisis peaked.  

Intense drought “rarely seen in history”  was occurring  said Chen Lei,  director of the Drought Relief Headquarters.    The China president Hu Jintao ordered an “all out” effort to fight drought.   Presumably, this meant tapping into reservoirs for irrigation in the 35-40% of wheat farms hit hardest by drought.   

But how much water was actually available?  Several months of drought  depleted reservoirs.

 

 

Henan and Shandong were the hardest hit provinces with drought  receiving less than 40% of normal rainfall in the long stretch, fall through winter.   Together the 2 provinces  grow 44% of the national wheat production.   Wheat is the second most abundant grain in China accounting for 20% of total grains.

 

China scientists have warned that over-use of water on the North China Plain was rapidly lowering the ground water table.    This is a highly populated area of China, where intensive irrigation from agriculture and industry are competing for a shrinking supply of water.   At the current rate of usage, North China water supplies may be exhausted in 20-25 years. 

Severe drought in North China also had developed in 2008-09.   A New York Times story February 25, 2009, showed pictures of boats sitting on dry land in Henan the leading wheat province.   Find the story online:  Worst Drought in Half Century Shrivels Wheat Belt of China:    http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/25/world/asia/25drought.html

 Another report on China's water crisis is  Beneath Booming Cities China's Future is Drying Up:  http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/28/world/asia/28water.html?pagewanted=all