Crop Production Worries From Extreme Weather

August 17, 2011

La Nina may be the common denominator for weather stress in the United States Corn Belt and Russia.   China corn needs are outstripping supplies with meat consumption rising.

 

Corn Deterioration Severe in 3 Key Midwest States

Iowa, Illinois and Indiana corn has deteriorated very rapidly over the  past 5 weeks.    Between July 10 and August  14,  good-excellent corn fell  17% on average, while poor-very poor corn increased 9%.       The 3 states  account for 43% of national corn output.     The mean yield in the “I” states was 168.4 bushels per acre and 9.3% above the national average over the past 5 years.  Therefore, any yield losses would have an enormous impact on the United States 2011 corn production.

 

 

Soybeans Need Heavy Rain, Drought Knocking on Door

A steep deficit in soil moisture has built up in the central Midwest.  The 3 states Iowa, Illinois and Indiana received subpar rainfall the past 5 weeks and 23% below normal.     Drought is knocking on the door.   It would require above-normal rainfall for soybeans to avoid slipping into serious moisture stress.      At the same time, soybean  moisture requirements  are increasing in the pod filling stage.    USDA reported that 70% of soybeans were filling pods August 14 up from 51% the previous week.   

 

 

 

La Nina Signal is Strengthening, Full Blown Episode This Fall

A growing La Nina influence may be to blame for worsening drought in the Midwest heartland.   During the past 30 days the sea surface temperatures have chilled sharply in the eastern equatorial Pacific Ocean, verifying a strengthening La Nina.     A full-blown La Nina is expected in the  fall , based on Climate Prediction Center models.      

 

The La Nina is a known drought producer in the  Southern Great  Plains winter wheat states Texas and Oklahoma.    The US Drought Monitor indicates “exceptional drought” already exists in those states along with southern Kansas:

 

 

Sov Econ Less Optimistic on Russia Grain Harvest

The new Russia grain harvest would not exceed 90 million metric tons in the new Sov Econ estimate. Grain output is now projected at 87-90 MMT down from the previous peg 87-92 million tonnes.     Crop area is down some 4 million hectares in 2011.    Yields have been very disappointing recentlym according to the respected analysis group.   Just over one-third of grains were gathered by August 5.  

Grain production may end with 89 million metric tons, SovEcon calculates, comparing weather and crop conditions with 2009,  the last successful harvest.  Historic drought in 2010 drove grain production to 61 million metric tons.  Wheat comprises around 65% of the grain harvest.  

The 89 MMT estimate may turn out to be the high point for the season.  Drought and heat damage may not be fully reflected in the un-harvested areas.    The Volga grain prospects may be worse than currently projected due to very warm and dry weather for more than a month:

 

   

 

Drought culminated in an intense heat wave this past week in the Volga.   The Central District in European Russia normally produces the highest grain yields.    Early harvesting results have been poor and around 2 metric tons per hectare, coming from  Kursk, Tambov, Belgorad and Voronezh districts.    Finally,  summer drought has worsened in Eastern Siberia a key spring wheat growing area.  

 

Click here to see Russia's vast wheat area that spans several time zones.

 

 

 

China Corn Import Needs Rising,  United States the Main Supplier

The new China corn harvest  is expected to be substantial and one of the better crops in recent years.   However with growing feed grain needs, it would not be enough.   A Wall Street Journal story published today highlights the sharply increased meat consumption in the nation as the standard of living improves.      A CBS national news report last night showed Chinese  restaurants serving up more meat – pork, beef and chicken – as demanded by the populace.     Rapidly rising corn needs for  animal feed would stimulate imports from the United States, the top producer, the television report concluded.