Devastating Losses in Ukraine Wheat from Historic Drought

January 6, 2012

Historic drought in Ukraine prevents any chances for a productive wheat harvest in 2012.   Production may plummet to the lowest level since 2003, shrinking domestic supplies and removing Ukraine from the wheat export market in 2012-13.

Precipitation finally developed in late December, after a 6-month drought, but the generous rainfall comes too late to rescue wheat from a very poor outcome.  Perhaps 50% of Ukraine wheat may be lost from historic drought that began early in July.

 

Drought breaking rainfall in late December amounted to 1-2 inches in parched winter wheat areas of the southern Ukraine, the main producing area.  Less key winter wheat districts in central Ukraine also received generous rainfall.   It is "too little, too late" not sufficient for wheat to recover and make a normal harvest.

 

Irreversible Damage from Historic Drought

The drought had grown very severe by mid December, when the government claimed 70% of winter crops were in poor condition. Previously, in November, the head of Ukraine’s meteorology department claimed one-third of winter grains failed to germinate, and may be irrevocably lost.  By then, winter wheat areas in south Ukraine wheat had been subjected to extremely dry conditions receiving no measurable rainfall in 160 days.

Odessa, the top winter wheat district, was perfectly dry July 1 to December 14, based on official reports from the Ukraine weather service.   Historic drought occurred in other key winter wheat districts in southern Ukraine, as well.   

 

Texas Drought Analog

Six months of intense drought is remarkable, perhaps occurring only once in 75 years.  This is based on evidence of crop damage from Texas drought, also historically significant.  Only 1.81 inches of rainfall developed in West Texas in  calendar year 2011, compared to 19.64 inches normally.  

Texas winter wheat, developing the first 5 months of 2011, produced only 49.4 million bushels and 46% of normal (the previous 5-year average).  Texas drought was similar to southern Ukraine drought in the 6 months July-December.

The full extent of damage in Ukraine will not be known until the end of winter, when wheat emerges from dormancy.  Temperatures have been unseasonably warm since early December, keeping evaporation elevated and further depleting field moisture.

 

The worst Ukraine wheat production in modern times occurred in 2003. This was a a full blown disaster, when production shrank to only 3.6 million metric tons. Production was 80% below the previous growing season. Massive losses were due primarily to persistent Ice crusts that smothered wheat, causing a massive die-off.

New crop wheat production in 2012 would not be that poor, though devastating losses are still likely from historic drought.  Just half a normal wheat crop may be harvested this season and 11-12 million metric tons, down from 22 million metric tons in 2011.    Thirty percent of wheat did not germinate and 70% of the crop was rated poor from low planting rains:

 

Weather extremes cause excessive damage.   Crops are grown in a particular area  because the climate and soils are  suitable for a productive yield.   When the weather deviates too far from normal,  the negative impact on production is very pronounced.