Drought Struggles Continue in Hard Red Winter Wheat

October 25, 2011

Extremely low rainfall August-October is worrisome for bread wheat prospects in the United States.  It is the second year in a row of serious drought. 

The USDA issued the first official winter wheat ratings of the new season showing 47 percent good-excellent, 37 percent fair and 16 percent poor-very poor as of October 23.   Crop condition reports are not useful at this stage since only 56% of winter wheat has germinated and “emerged” .    

Planting was 82% complete in hard red winter wheat.   The 7 key bread wheat states Kansas, Oklahoma, Texas, Montana, Colorado, Nebraska and South Dakota produce 58% of United States winter wheat.

Worse Drought Than Last Fall

It is the second year in a row of serious drought in hard red winter wheat. We may argue drought this year is worse, due to a hot, dry summer previously, reducing subsoil moisture reserves. Hard red winter wheat has received only 3.51 inches of rainfall since the middle of August, and just 65% of normal. Conditions were relatively wetter last year with 88% of normal  late summer through October.

Worse conditions than last year are confirmed on a October vegetation index in Texas, Oklahoma and Central Kansas.  Relatively better conditions are seen in NW Kansas, Colorado and west Nebraska: 

See a long history of August-October rainfall in hard red winter wheat below.    Conditions this season are the  driest since 1988.   The rainfall  is a weighted average in the 7 key hard red winter wheat states August 1 - October 31.

Fall Climate Dry in Great Plains

It may be difficult to restore field moisture, due to a dry fall climate in the Great Plains. Kansas rainfall is 2.70 inches in September, dropping off to 1.92 “ in October and 1.32 “ in November, based on 30 year averages.   

Sometimes, the Southwest monsoon delivers a bolus of heavy rainfall to the Great Plains in the fall, improving field moisture for hard red winter wheat development. 

This is a large scale wind system most pronounced in the summer season, directing tropical moisture from west Mexico into the Great Plains on southwesterly winds.   It may be seen on a satellite view from late July.  A moist air stream from Mexico was fueling thunderstorms in Nebraska and the Upper Midwest.

The North America monsoon is not nearly as strong and persistent as the Asian monsoons.  Sometimes, it does not occur at all in the summer-fall season.