Heat and Moisture Stress Emerging in Mato Grosso Brazil

November 28, 2011

There are no major problems in Brazil corn and soybeans just yet.  We are keeping an eye on Mato Grosso, where heat and moisture stress is developing in late November and Rio Grande do Sul in South Brazil where drought is a growing concern.  Favorable growing conditions continue in Parana, the leading corn state and second top Brazil soybean producer.

Rio Grande do Sul crops are in jeopardy from worsening dryness. It appears as if drought is creeping northward, soon to overtake "good" crops near the Santa Catarina border.  Dryness has grown severe in northwest and northeast Rio Grande do Sul, where monthly rainfall has been scarcely half of normal.  Drought actually began 2-3 months ago in the southernmost farm state depleting the subsoil.   Heavy rain is needed very soon to avoid serious crop deterioration. 

See November rainfall below  showing sub-par moisture in Mato Grosso and Rio Grande do Sul.  It is important to remember that October was wet, muting the effects of November dryness to a large degree.

 

October was wet helping crops ride out November dryness in better condition:

 

Brazil Corn Production Estimate Raised

Brazil aims to produce more corn this season in Mato Grosso, traditionally the biggest soybean state.  Corn is produced as a second crop after the soybean harvest is done.   Production last season was not as successful as anticipated, due to delayed planting and an abrupt finish to the rainy season.    Corn was still filling grain when the monsoon suddenly shut off in April. 

In Parana, early planting this spring means that crop development is more advanced than usual.  A second corn harvest would be grown in the Parana subtropics, planted as soon as short-cycle soybeans are harvested in January and February.    

The USDA predicts a record Brazil corn harvest this season, 61 million metric tons,  compared to last year’s 57.50 MMT.     

 

Heat Dome in South America Interior

A heat wave is building in the interior of the continent where highs in the mid 90s F have been occurring for several days. The area affected includes northern Argentina soybean provinces Santiago del Estero, Chaco and northern Santa Fe, along with Paraguay.    From there, extreme heat extends northward into Brazil’s interior states Mato Grosso do Sul and Mato Grosso.  

Low humidity has created hot days and cool nights, highs in the 90s F and lows near 70 F in Mato Grosso.  This is very unusual as warm and humid conditions are the norm in the Brazil tropics. 

 

Another way to view heat and dryness is the heat-radiation anomaly. This is a satellite product that compares outgoing earth-heat to a long-term mean value, which is then plotted as a departure from normal.  The orange and red areas in Mato Grosso on the November heat-radiation map suggest moisture stress is developing in the key soybean area, the Center West.  

 

Most of Brazil is dry on the 7-day forecast,  though the extended range outlook for next week suggests normal rainfall may return to key corn and soybean states.