Stunted Growth in Argentina Corn

November 22, 2011

Argentina is aiming to produce a record corn harvest of 29 million metric tons in order to increase market share in global exports, but drought may get in the way wiith La Niña in effect.    The United States is the world leader in corn production and exports, but domestic supplies are reduced from a disappointing harvest.

If Argentina achieves its goal,  the 2011-12 corn harvest would set a new record at 29 million metric tons:  

 

The high corn production estimate is based on record acreage and average (trend) yields. 

 

Sub-Par Vegetation From Planting Delays, Drought

The  November vegetation image is not a favorable picture of Argentina corn potential showing sub-par growth in the grain belt.  Buenos Aires the top corn province looks particularly bad, no doubt, due to severe planting delays and drought  in September and October.   Ordinarily, corn planting begins in mid September in Buenos Aires.  

Cordoba, the second leading corn province, has sub-par growth also.

 

La Niña Causing Drought  

A new emerging La Niña may be the cause of drought in Buenos Aires.  A moderately strong  La Niña occurred in 2008-09,  the analog for Argentina drought.    

 

Compare  August-October rainfall maps in both growing seasons.  Conditions were dry from late winter- to spring in Buenos Aires, the top corn province. 

Once again drought has manifested in Buenos Aires the top corn province with an emerging La Niña.

Very Poor Outcome in 2008-09

Nearly 40% of the Buenos Aires corn was lost in 2008-09, as drought grew more intense in the summer from December - February.  This encompassed the main pollinating period in late December-January and  grain filling into February.    The Argentina national corn yield fell  14% below trend in 2008-09.  

The Climate Prediction Center believes the La Nina will strengthen November-January, before weakening gradually February-March.   This would increase the chances for Argentina drought and poor corn yields. 

See low summer rainfall  in 2008-09 with a "moderate" La Niña in effect.  The Buenos Aires corn harvest was a disaster with nearly 40% of the crop cut for silage and not sold as grain.