Ukraine and East Europe Rapeseed Projected Lower on Drought

November 30, 2011

Rapeseed is in jeopardy from drought in Ukraine and East Europe.    

Ukraine rapeseed has been subject to prolonged and severe drought this fall.  The analysis group UkrAgroConsult predicts that rapeseed production may shrink to 800,000 - 1.20 million metric tons in 2011-12, making this the fourth consecutive year of low production.   Fifty percent of new rapeseed sowings were considered at risk from drought, the group claims, adding that 130,000 – 150,000 hectares have already been written off.  Lost hectares would be around 16% of the total area sown.

The dire rapeseed prediction is due to severe drought.  Ukraine rainfall has been less than 40% of normal, on average, in the southern producing area in the 3 months ending November 28.   Poor crop establishment in the fall increases chances for winter kill, if severe cold develops without snow to insulate the crop.

East Europe Rapeseed Moisture Stress Similar

The drought plaguing Ukraine also affects Eastern Europe rapeseed. The November vegetation index confirms sub-par crop growth in Poland, east Czech Republic, Hungary, Romania and Slovakia, nations that together produce 24% of European Union rapeseed.

Poor fall growth and development is partly due to cold November temperatures that forced rapeseed into premature dormancy.  Dry field conditions are also present from scanty fall precipitation. Indeed October-November rainfall was only 30-50% of normal over the broad East European farm belt.   See 90-day rainfall below:

The top EU rapeseed producers Germany, France and United Kingdom have better prospects than Eastern Europe.  These countries produce 64% of the EU-27 rapeseed harvest.    Nonetheless, crop potential is below normal with worsening fall drought.  

Virtually no rain has occurred the last half of November.  United Kingdom is particularly dry in the 3 month period September-November.

Wet Conditions Last Fall

Last year, fall growing conditions in Europe were wet.  Indeed, flooding encouraged slow establishment in Germany, the EU top producer of the oilseed.      Weak root establishment in the fall ultimately contributed to winter kill in northern Germany.  The rapeseed harvest was  disappointing 5.70 million metric tons and 10% lower on the season.   

Rapeseed got off to a favorable start in France and United Kingdom with generous rainfall in the September-November growing period.     However, a historic drought in France in the spring reduced the rapeseed harvest, shrinking production to 4.82 MMT, and a 14% reduction.   The United Kingdom rapeseed harvest was very good, despite spring drought, 2.23 million metric tons and 16% higher than the 2009-10 harvest.

See wet growing conditions in the fall of 2010 below,  even flooding farms in Germany, Poland and Hungary.

We cannot blame weather extremes on the ENSO fluctuation, since La Nina was occurring in both fall growing seasons,  2010 and 2011.