Weather Stress in Argentina Corn Growing Severe

January 9, 2012

Corn potential worsened last week in Argentina with no rainfall and extreme heat.   Maximum temperatures over 100 F were recorded in Buenos Aires on January 6,  moderating to upper 90s F January 7.  Drought has worsened  the past 6-7 weeks in the Argentina grain belt  increasing stress on developing corn.

December was particularly dry with practically no rainfall in Buenos Aires.  The late December  satellite vegetation image showed worse conditions than the 7-year average in Central Buenos Aires, a key corn area, and scattered areas of the northern province, a mixed corn and soybean area. 

Pro Farmer reported this morning the Argentina Government’s Committee on Farming Emergency will meet Thursday to assess drought and discuss relief efforts to farmers.   Conditions were said to be “getting worse by the day”. 

Less Rain in Revised Forecast

The widespread heavy rainfall first indicated for Buenos Aires early this week would not occur in the Buenos Aires key corn areas.   A cool front would track south-to-north producing locally heavy rain in northern Buenos Aires,  a less important corn growing area.   The original forecast was for widespread rains 4-6 inches in a stalled trough of low pressure and affecting the key corn growing areas.

The new forecast is not very hopeful for good rainfall in Cordoba, the second leading corn province, showing only .50- .75 inch.

The grain belt forecast is dry January 12-16 but with much cooler temperatures, highs in the 80s F, and closer to normal.

Very low rainfall has been negative for South Brazil crops particularly Rio Grande do Sul.   This is the number 3 top producing Brazil producing state for corn and soybeans.  Hardly any rain has occurred for 6 weeks, even longer in western and southern areas of the state.

On January 5,  the Parana Rural Economy Department lowered the Parana  corn production estimate to 6.4 million metric tons from 74. MMT earlier, a 14% cut.

One difference between South Brazil and Argentina has been relatively less extreme temperatures, though much of Parana has been at least 2 F hotter than normal in the past 30 days.