Wheat Worries in Russia, Canada, United States

August 24, 2011

Low Yields in Black Earth Area Reduces Russia Wheat Outlook

Poor results in the wheat harvest in the Black Earth region have led to another reduction in Russia grain expectations.   Sov Econ now predicts the new Russia grain harvest may be 87-88 million metric tons and lower than 87 – 90 million metric tons estimated 10 days ago.    A  90 million metric ton harvest would be overly optimistic Sov Econ chief Andrey Sisov  said.  

 

Black Earth wheat executive Richard Warbuton said that Black Earth winter wheat yields were coming in at 2.5 metric tons per hectare, up from last year,   but below the Russia 2.8 metric tons per hectare average in the harvest so far.    Winter wheat area was said to be down 3,000 hectares.    Harvesting reached 50% complete August 24, according to official reports from the Ministry of Agriculture.   

 

The "average cumulative rainfall was tracking the drought conditions seen last year up until the end of June”.    Severe drought adversely affected wheat and barley in a “sensitive” stage of development, Mr. Warbuton said.   Click here for more drought in European Russia:  http://www.martellcropprojections.com/CropProductionReports/Severe-Drought-in-Russia-Central-Region-Shrinks-the-Harvest-

 

 

Canada New Crop Wheat Production Similar to Last Season, Down From Normal 

The Canada wheat harvest  is off to a slow start reaching 7% complete, compared to 12% normally.   Delayed planting dates and cool summer growing conditions in the western prairies were delaying crop maturity.   Statistics Canada said recent heat may temper production losses in the western growing areas,  where persistent dampness has occurred. 

 

Total wheat production was pegged at  24.1 million metric tons , based on Statistics Canada reflecting late July conditions.   That would be slightly above last year’s 23.2 million metric tons but down from the 2004-08 average of 24.9 million metric tons. 

 

Saskatchewan and Alberta wheat potential is favorable, Statistics Canada claims, but Manitoba prospects are poor pegged down 30.3 % based on early harvesting results.   Seven percent of prairie crops were harvested by August 24 compared to 12% normally.

Canada 2010-11 wheat exports using the updated production figure would be 15 million metric tons and the lowest since 2004. 

 

 

North Dakota Wheat Deteriorating

Crop ratings in North Dakota have tumbled in August falling from 69%  good-excellent, 24% fair and 7% poor-very poor on the August 20 report.   That compares to 78% good-excellent, 18% fair and 4% poor three weeks earlier on July 30. 

Producers reported problems with insects and worried about disease with extreme soil wetness.  Access to fields was limited,  preventing growers from spraying early in August.
 

 

 

North Dakota is the top producer of hard red spring wheat accounting for 12.5% of United States wheat production overall.  A large bread wheat harvest was hoped for the wake of a 22 percent shortfall in hard red winter wheat, 794.4 million bushels compared to 1.018 billion bushels last year.